Tuesday August 2, 2005
Scratch these from the Oscars list
By Barry Koltnow
Of all the silly things that the entertainment media finds to write about - and the list of silly things is embarrassingly long - perhaps the silliest of all is the mid-year "Oscar Watch."
These are the stories, usually published in July, that handicap the annual Academy Awards competition. In these stories, the writers not only look back on what films and performances they've seen so far, but also speculate as to what the future might hold.
What elevates these stories from merely boring to downright silly is that it is impossible to handicap the Oscars race at this point in the campaign because most of the serious contenders haven't been seen yet.
As anyone with even the slightest knowledge of Hollywood knows, most of the real Oscar players in the key categories are included in a pool of films that are released in the final quarter of the year.
Therefore, Oscar prognosticators are forced to judge the few above-average films they've already seen against a group of potentially above-average films they haven't.
They do this by playing the Pedigree Game.
For instance, when media types first heard about the film Cinderella Man, they immediately put it on their lists of Oscar-worthy films for 2005. No one had seen it yet, or even knew who James J. Braddock was, but they figured that with Oscar-winning director Ron Howard, Oscar-winning producer Brian Grazer, Oscar-winning screenwriter Akiva Goldsman, Oscar-winning actor Russell Crowe and Oscar-winning actress Renee Zellweger involved, how could it miss?
Critics were ready to hand over the Best Picture Oscar a year in advance.
They had a point. When you add up all those Oscar winners, it's hard to believe that the people at the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences are even bothering to count ballots this year.
Of course, now that most of the people in Hollywood have seen Cinderella Man, that certainty of pedigree has become nothing more than a possibility. The attitude seems to be: "It was a good movie, but let's see what else is out there."
So, now that Cinderella Man is not the slam-dunk it once was thought to be, the media pundits have gone back to try to calculate the Oscar chances of the rest of the pack by studying the pedigrees of the films being released in November and December.
It's not only silly, it's ridiculous.
The only Oscar-prediction game that can be played this early in the year is the "Who doesn't stand a chance of winning an Oscar?" game.
Pedigree alone may not be a sure-fire method of determining Oscar winners, but there are some pretty reliable ways of determining which films have no chance of picking up a statuette.
We're not going to mention any specific titles here, but these are just 10 clues to look for when deciding what films to scratch off your Oscar office pool list:
1. If the movie is based on a bad 1970s or 1980s TV show, and stars a fast car or a pair of sexy shorts, it has no chance of winning an Oscar.
2. If the movie includes outtakes that run during the end credits that are funnier than anything in the movie, it has no chance of winning an Oscar.
3. If the movie includes car chases in which at least three police cruisers are smashed, it has no chance of winning an Oscar.
4. If the movie stars anyone who has ever been a cast member on Saturday Night Live, it has no chance of winning an Oscar.
5. If a movie stars Adam Sandler as the son of the devil, a former professional football player or a waterboy, it has no chance of winning an Oscar.
6. If a movie was directed by Martin Scorsese, it apparently has no chance of winning an Oscar.
7. If the movie stars someone wearing a superhero mask or colorful costume, and features a sidekick in costume, it has no chance of winning an Oscar.
8. If the movie is a remake of a movie or TV show, but the roles have been cast along different racial lines as a gimmick, it has no chance of winning an Oscar.
9. If the movie is scary but does not star Anthony Hopkins, it has no chance of winning an Oscar.
10. If the movie picks up the prestigious Palme d'Or at the Cannes International Film Festival, walks off with the Grand Jury Prize at the Sundance Film Festival or was the hit of the Independent Spirit Awards, it most likely has no chance of winning an Oscar.
However, you can almost guarantee that critics will complain that the film that did win all those other awards was much better than the movie honored with the Best Picture Oscar.
Copyright © 2005 KRT News Service
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